The wind is blowing! Aeroengine special detonated the superalloy industry
although the performance of the index in recent days has been tepid, the steel plate on the disk has continued to change, and careful observation will find that the steel stocks with the main changes are mainly concentrated in the special steel field, especially the superalloy main 8 Modular function of test standard: the performance of providing test standard setting questions that users need to set can be described as undercurrent surging, and this change is obviously not groundless under the appearance. A number of institutions, media and people from the Ministry of industry and information technology said that the aeroengine special project was reviewed by the State Council as early as the end of last year. Once approved, the entire aeroengine industry chain will enter the golden cycle of rapid development. Among them, the most in-depth benefit and demand will surge is the Pearl of aeroengine - superalloy industry! Relevant investment opportunities must be observed
according to the Ministry of industry and information technology, the special project of aero-engine will be reviewed by the State Council soon. "Aero engine is a very important task in the process of equipment development. At present, the special document of aero-engine has not been issued yet, (however) it will be issued soon."
it is understood that China Aero Engine Group Corporation (hereinafter referred to as AVIC), which was originally formed by the spin off of related businesses of AVIC (hereinafter referred to as AVIC), completed its industrial and commercial registration on May 31 this year and held its inaugural meeting in Beijing on August 28. China Aviation Development Corporation is considered to be the main enterprise undertaking the special project of aeroengine
the above-mentioned person from the Ministry of industry and information technology told that the reason why China aviation development was separated from AVIC was to concentrate on doing a good job in the engine. "China has been fierce in the aero engine for a long time, but it still lags far behind the world's advanced level, and is currently in a critical period of breakthrough."
the person told that in the next step, AVIC commercial Aero Engine Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of AVIC, is focusing on developing aero engines with high thrust and high bypass ratio. "The biggest constraint of domestic large aircraft now is the engine, and it will be matched for domestic large aircraft in the future."
2. China Aviation Development Corporation: pay close attention to the development of key models and the special implementation of "two aircraft" in 2017
attach importance to original innovation. The 2017 work conference of China aero engine group (hereinafter referred to as "AVIC") was held in Beijing to summarize the work in 2016, analyze the situation and deploy the key tasks in 2017. The meeting pointed out that 2017 is an important year for the implementation of the 13th five year plan, the deepening of the supply side structural reform, and the key year for the group to promote the implementation of the "two aircraft" project, accelerate the transformation of independent innovation, and overcome the bottleneck of aviation power. The group is facing unprecedented opportunities and challenges, and is in a critical period of struggling to tackle key problems and consolidate the foundation, a critical period of deepening reform, improving quality and efficiency, and improving capacity The opportunity period of accelerating development presents an inspiring "momentum" of "three phases intertwined"
in terms of key tasks in 2017, China Aviation Development Group will pay close attention to the development of key models and the special implementation of "two aircraft" to ensure the full completion of scientific research and production tasks; Pay close attention to reform and adjustment to ensure that the management structure is further straightened out; Pay close attention to cost engineering to ensure the continuous improvement of economic operation quality; We should strictly manage the party and ensure that party building is comprehensively strengthened
3. Miao Wei, Minister of the Ministry of industry and information technology: "during the 13th Five Year Plan period, we should achieve breakthroughs in the special key technologies of the two machines!"
on November 24, 2016, the national industrial and Information Technology Innovation Conference was held in Beijing to deploy the industrial innovation task of the "13th five year plan" industrial information system. Miao Wei, Minister of the Ministry of industry and information technology, said at the meeting that major special projects for aeroengines and gas turbines should be fully launched
Miao Wei said that during the "13th five year plan" period, we should achieve breakthroughs in the special key technologies of the two aircraft, promote the development of large aircraft engines, advanced helicopter engines, heavy-duty gas turbines and other products, and initially establish a basic research, technology and product development and industrial system for independent innovation of aircraft engines and gas turbines
4. Organization: break through the bottleneck of aero-engine research and development, and the demand for superalloys will detonate
after Trump takes office, the external environment of China's economic development and the surrounding geographical situation will face more uncertainty, and the development of military industry is imperative, especially the advanced equipment such as aviation, aerospace, navy and so on. In the context of economic transformation, the high-end equipment industry has high threshold, strong monopoly, long research and development cycle. After the batch production of new military models and the completion of the technical inflection point, it will bring several years of deterministic performance growth, and superimpose the double profit growth brought by the reform. The profitability and valuation level of the military industry will be greatly improved, and the value of industrial allocation will be highlightedThe high-end equipment represented by the military aircraft industry chain will open the turning point of high growth performance in the military industry. If there is a growth inflection point in the military aircraft industry chain, the upstream key raw materials such as superalloys will usher in the inflection point of order explosion. At present, the annual demand for superalloys is more than 20000 tons, and the domestic output is about 10000 tons, so there is a large space for import substitution. Aviation is an important demand field for superalloys. In the future, strategic models may enter the loading period and are expected to accelerate batch production. The high growth rate of military aircraft orders is expected to drive the demand for superalloys upward. It is predicted that the compound annual average growth rate of demand for superalloys in the future years can reach 20%
in aeroengine, one of the important bottlenecks lies in superalloy materials. Since its birth, superalloy materials have been widely used in the aerospace field, accounting for 40% - 60% of the total weight of the engine. It is one of the key elements of the research and development and production of aircraft engines. In the future, once the aero-engine project is launched, the demand for superalloy materials will increase on a large scale. According to the data predicted by the U.S. Department of defense, it is expected that in the next 20 years, China will increase the number of fighter aircraft by 1430, 1500 large military aircraft and 500 trainer aircraft, and the total demand for superalloys will reach 57000 tons. In addition, the maintenance and repair of existing military aircraft will be converted into 2000 engines, and the corresponding demand for superalloys will reach about 10000 tons. Therefore, the demand for superalloys in the field of military aeroengines alone will reach 67000 tons. If we consider other fields such as engines and gas turbines, the downstream demand for superalloys will be broader
5. Shenwan Hongyuan: two development strategies in the layout of new energy metal materials have detonated the demand for superalloys.
the superalloy industry has high barriers to entry, and superalloy materials have high technical content, especially aerospace products have very stringent requirements on quality reliability, performance stability, product appearance and size accuracy, etc. without certain technical reserves and R & D strength, It is difficult for general enterprises to enter the field of Superalloy production. The stability of product performance and quality reliability are the first factors that users consider. Users have strict procedures for product trial. Once a supplier is selected, it will not be replaced easily
there are no more than 50 large-scale superalloy enterprises in the world, which are mainly divided into three categories in China:
1, special steel enterprises (large quantities, basic raw materials)
2. Research institutes (high-end products with small batch and complex structure)
3. Precision casting plant (machined parts) under AVIC
short term market: there is a wide space for import substitution of automobile turbochargers. By 2019, the annual sales volume of turbochargers in China will reach 13million units, and the market space will reach 39billion yuan
medium term market: military aero engines entering the industrialization stage are expected to drive the demand for superalloys. The improved mass production of ws10 is expected to promote the industrialization of domestic engines. Assuming that the value of each engine blade is 15 million yuan, the corresponding annual blade demand is 21.8 billion yuan
long term market: commercial aeroengines and gas turbines are the most important application fields of superalloys and blades. The average annual demand for superalloys and blades of commercial aircraft engines and gas turbines in the next 10 years is 115.6 billion yuan
industry catalyst: policy driven, looking forward to the implementation of "two machine special projects"! Two machine R & D is expected to receive special subsidies
the research and development process of aero-engine is very "money burning". Lin Zuoming, chairman of AVIC, once said that insufficient capital investment is one of the main factors restricting the breakthrough of aero-engine. The development of an engine often requires billions of dollars. In contrast, the United States, Britain, Russia and other countries with advanced engine R & D and production capacity have invested a lot of financial subsidies in engine R & D from the national level
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